Chapter 166 The Great Divergence of Producers and Consumers
In response to Ge Yu's question, Lu An immediately asked: "Why do we have to protect employment?"
Then he continued: "Securing employment is a means. Stabilizing people's livelihood and promoting harmony is the ultimate goal. The goal cannot be changed, but the means can be changed. Robots have emerged as a more advanced productivity, which actually gives us another alternative to maintaining employment. Employment is a better way to achieve the purpose of stabilizing people's livelihood and promoting harmony. "
Hearing this, Ge Yu looked surprised and suddenly asked curiously: "How do you say this?"
"Reshape the existing distribution mechanism." Lu An first concluded, and then deconstructed it methodically and in detail: "Because more advanced productivity has emerged, if you stick to the same, the future situation will in turn force you to change."
During the First Industrial Revolution, Luddite workers smashed big machines and textile workers smashed jenny machines in anger, which are all written down in history textbooks. Some European monarchs also found that industrialization threatened their rule and obstructed industrialization. At that time, the Qing Dynasty did not dare to industrialize in order to suppress the Han Dynasty.
What is the result? No matter inside or outside, without exception, they have been crushed by the general trend of history. The progress of advanced productive forces is not based on any individual will, including the collective will.
If you don’t use it, others will use it. No matter how much you delay, how long can you delay it? Even if countries all over the world miraculously reach a consensus to reject advanced productive forces, as long as one country cannot hold back, everyone will be forced to start competing.
Ge Yu looked at Lu An: "Reshape the existing distribution mechanism? How?"
Hearing this, Lu An did not give a direct answer, but instead said: "First of all, we must deeply understand that as an advanced productivity robot, what are the new problems derived from its emergence? It will produce two unavoidable problems. "
At this moment, Ge Yu lowered his head and started writing with a notepad. At the same time, the recorder was turned on, because this time he came to ask for advice on behalf of the superiors, and the contents of the conversation would be compiled and reported.
Lu An said calmly and orderly: "Question one, the more advanced the robots, the higher the replacement rate. The large-scale popularization of robots will inevitably lead to the same number of people becoming unemployed. When robots are advanced to a certain extent, they can theoretically replace 99% of jobs.
"Question two, as robots release advanced productivity and bring about an exponential increase in supply-side production capacity, the consumer side needs stronger consumption power. If consumption is sluggish, there will soon be a surplus crisis, and it will be more serious than any surplus crisis in history." He looked at Lu An and said, "But these two problems seem to have no solution. The popularization of robots will inevitably lead to an increase in unemployment, loss of income, and consumption will inevitably be sluggish. Consumption here is sluggish, production capacity there is exploding, and goods are unsaleable, which will inevitably lead to a crisis of oversupply. This - this is a two-way vicious cycle with no solution.""
What is this called? This means that one muscle becomes blocked at both ends, and it is so blocked that it cannot be blocked again.
Lu An immediately said: "Yes, but this death spiral is not unsolvable. There is a solution, and there is only one solution, which is to reshape the existing distribution mechanism. If you are unwilling to reshape the distribution mechanism, then simply be conservative and choose to maintain the status quo, and don't let robots take over people's jobs."
Hearing this, Ge Yu immediately said: "The emergence of advanced productive forces has become an established fact. Even if you want to maintain the status quo, it is impossible. Rejecting advanced productive forces is equivalent to slow death."
Hearing this, Ge Yu added: "Comrade Lu An, what kind of solution are you talking about? ”
Lu An replied: “In a word, heavy taxes will be levied on robots, and the collected taxes will be used as unemployment insurance benefits to be directly distributed to the unemployed through transfer payments. In the future, a comprehensive transformation will be completed, that is, after robots have replaced more than 90% of human jobs, it will be expanded to provide money to all people.”
After a pause, Lu An said: "Don't say that paying money encourages getting something for nothing and supporting lazy people. In the past, it may have been true. If you don't work, you will get money. No one is willing to work hard. The efficiency is naturally low and unsustainable."
There is no need to pay wages to robots, and the efficiency is far higher than that of human labor. "
"In other words, the new productivity has changed the underlying logic of the entire society. The old concepts are no longer applicable in the face of the new productivity. When robots make more than 95% of people lose their jobs, and they can no longer survive without money or income, needless to say what they will do, right?"
“And if you don’t give them money, how will they get the money to consume? Consumption is sluggish, so many goods are sold to whom? How to solve the surplus crisis? Do you rely on robots for consumption? Robots are producers, and their biggest consumption scenarios are maintenance and replacement of parts. This consumption power is not as good as a hair on the body of a nine-year-old cow. To calm the surplus crisis, we can only rely on human consumption.”
With the emergence and popularization of robots and their participation in social division of labor, the structure of human society will inevitably undergo fundamental changes. Advanced productivity can further explain that our social interpretation is a more advanced model than capital interpretation.
In the past, people were both producers and consumers, but in the future, producers and consumers will inevitably move towards a major divergence.
The producer attributes of robots will account for more than 99%, and the consumer attributes of humans will account for more than 99%.
Human productivity is not as good as that of robots, but everyone can spend money and consume, and they belong to the Holy Body of Innate Consumption; while robots have poor consumption capabilities,
But their production capabilities are huge, and they belong to the Holy Body of Acquired Cows and Horses.
A producer and a consumer, the two complement each other exactly.
Lu An said: “If robots are to be popularized here to release advanced productivity, and money is not distributed to all the people there, consumption will inevitably be sluggish, which will inevitably lead to a crisis of surplus, and the result will inevitably be a death spiral. Both ends exploded."
After hearing Lu An's summary, Ge Yu couldn't help but nodded, and immediately said: "I understand, this is the logic behind the separation of 'rice' and 'bowl' you mentioned before."
Hearing this, Lu An laughed and said: "Robots work, and people only get paid. Who would panic and worry about losing their job? Are you eager to leave your job to robots? The narrative logic of "robots grabbing jobs" that is promoted outside is rhythmic, but there is a group of thieves who are deliberately causing trouble and smearing the public. "
After cursing, Lu An looked at Ge Yu and further elaborated: "My model can not only break the dead cycle and achieve a two-way positive cycle, but also allow our country to become the world's largest manufacturing country and the largest consumer country at the same time. It can truly have its cake and eat it too."
Ge Yu suddenly said: "Oh? Please tell me."
Lu An immediately structured his logic in detail in a calm and orderly manner, while Ge Yu listened carefully and took notes.
In the past, the largest manufacturing country and the largest consumer country could not have both. They could not appear in the same country. They could only choose one of the two. To maintain the status of the largest manufacturing country and attract the world to set up factories in your country, your labor costs must be low. To maintain the competitiveness of product exports, you often choose to lower commodity prices, resulting in less profits. In turn, labor wages will inevitably be lowered. Resident income is low, and consumption cannot be boosted.
This is the current situation in China. It is already the world's largest manufacturing country, but it has become the world's largest consumer with a population of more than 300 million.
To maintain the status of the largest consumer country, wages must be raised. As residents' incomes rise, consumption will naturally rise. However, the price is that the manufacturing industry will inevitably move overseas to places with lower labor costs.
This is how China has gradually lost its status as the world's largest manufacturing country in the past half century.
But this is all in the past, and now there is a way to solve it, which is to make robots fully popular and reshape the division of labor model of the entire human society.
· Robots are pure producers at the bottom of the social structure. This fundamental change allows people to be completely released from their producer attributes and play the role of pure consumers in the new social division of labor. Even if they are not 100% pure consumers, they account for more than 95%.
Hence, when 1.4 billion people have become almost pure consumers, it will be difficult not to become the world's largest consumer country. Not only is it the world's largest, but it is not impossible that a country's consumption power is higher than the combined consumption power of other countries in the world.
When the cost of using robots is lower than the labor cost in the third world, your scale effect is huge. Even the low-end manufacturing industry cannot be moved out, so it can firmly maintain its position as the world's largest manufacturing country.
With the great release of advanced productivity, goods are more affordable and high-quality than now.
The supply side is even more abundant than ever before, and the consumer side also needs unprecedented spending power.
Lu An drank a glass of water to moisten his throat, and then said: "So, in order to become the largest and strongest manufacturing and consuming country at the same time, robots must be popularized. Otherwise, if others popularize robots in the future, we will not be able to maintain our status as the largest manufacturing country. To popularize robots, we must pay the public."
"In the transitional stage, we will first give money to the unemployed. After the comprehensive transformation is completed, there will be a major diversion between the production and consumption ends. Then we must give money to all the people to activate consumption power, so as to stabilize the commodity surplus problem caused by the release of advanced productivity by robots." Lu An smiled and said: "In short, under the new division of labor model, robots are responsible for production, paying taxes, and providing goods to the market; humans are responsible for collecting money, consuming, and curbing overcapacity, so as to build a new balance and achieve a two-way positive cycle."
At this moment, Ge Yu completely agreed with the solution proposed by Lu An. He also believed that maintaining employment was important at the beginning, and firmly recognized that ensuring employment is to stabilize people's livelihood and stabilize society.
But this solution proposed by Lu An made Ge Yu realize that stabilizing people's livelihood and stabilizing society does not necessarily require ensuring employment.
The emergence of advanced productive forces does not guarantee employment. This is a seesaw relationship.
Then distributing money has become a must-choose topic, and there are two reasons why we have to do so:
One is that the crisis of excess requires a huge consumer group to calm it down; the other is that hundreds of millions of people are unemployed and facing a survival crisis. They cannot survive anyway. History has given the answer time and time again as to what they will do in the end.
After a while, Ge Yu suddenly realized that Lu An's solution was too scary in the eyes of business owners and capitalists.
Lu An’s solution is extremely unfavorable to the capitalists.
The current distribution mechanism, to put it more simply, is nothing more than relying on business owners, capitalists, and wealthy people to pay wages to the people at the bottom to solve problems.
If you have to rely on us capitalists for downward distribution, then we are the Yange Laotian Group. You must use us to solve a series of practical problems.
But this solution given by Lu An is equivalent to the state taking away the power of downward distribution, and the state will provide the basic insurance mechanism.
For business owners, rich people, and capitalists, losing the right to distribute downwards is very scary, which means that the Yange elders have lost the value of their existence.
In other words, the country is no longer dependent on them.
What scares them most is that they can no longer exert indirect pressure by coercing the public, and they have no leverage. At this time, the capitalists have to face the sentence: If you don't do it, others will do it!
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